Opportunities and challenges of China's cooperation with Central Asia in the field of new energy sources within the framework of the Green Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

The article analyzes the possibilities and limitations of cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in the field of new energy sources within the framework of the Green Belt and Road initiative. The study is based on current open sources from 2024-2025 and compares global benchmarks after the first Global Stocktake (tripling renewable energy capacity and accelerating energy efficiency by 2030) with national strategies and institutional settings of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. It is shown that China's technological and price advantage in the supply chains of solar photovoltaics and storage systems creates a fast corridor for scaling RES, but the sustainability of the portfolio is determined by network bottlenecks, the quality of PPA/auction designs and the depth of de-risking mechanisms. The most viable formats for the 2030 horizon have been identified: PV/wind clustering at the best sites, mandatory BESS integration at network nodes, generation + storage + network reinforcement package tenders, as well as early export compatibility verification (RFNBO, CBAM) for hydrogen and energy-intensive industrial projects. The necessity of aligning national green taxonomies with the BRIGC/MOFCOM-MEE guidelines and expanding blended-finance with the participation of IFIs is substantiated. The novelty of the work lies in the holistic linking of the green BRI contour with the specific operational agenda of the Central Asian energy systems (networks, flexibility, water), which allows us to obtain applied recommendations for regulators, system operators and investors.